Was a 2023 Recession Inevitable? An Archived Homeowner Guide
By Joseph T Ellington Jr – Licensed Residential Appraiser, Capital Valuations. Archived 2022 article about 2023 forecasts, reviewed September 2026. It is not a current recession forecast.
This article originally asked whether a recession might arrive in 2023. A forecast is not a fact. The National Bureau of Economic Research determines U.S. business-cycle dates retrospectively using multiple indicators. Consult its published chronology before calling a particular period an officially dated recession.
How a downturn could affect a home sale
| Channel | Possible effect | Evidence to examine |
|---|---|---|
| Employment and confidence | Some buyers pause or narrow budgets | Local employment and contracts |
| Borrowing costs | Payments change affordability | Freddie Mac historical rates |
| Inventory | Alternatives change negotiation | Neighborhood listings and closed sales |
None of these has a universal percentage effect on every Hampton Roads property. An appraiser studies actual transactions and the assignment's effective date. See our 2022 Hampton Roads archive and comparable sale selection.
Historical illustrations
The photographs below show a dollar bill and a seated person. They are decorative illustrations from the original article, not statistical charts or evidence of a recession. Use the NBER chronology linked above to check officially dated business cycles.
Practical steps
- Review your budget and discuss loan terms with an appropriate adviser.
- For a sale, examine current nearby closed transactions rather than a national prediction.
- For a value opinion, specify the property, intended use, and effective date.
Contact Capital Valuations for residential appraisal availability. See the separate 2008 comparison.